COT Positioning with Measured Outcomes
Where is each group positioned, and what happened after similar readings?

On financial futures it looks at leveraged funds and asset managers; on commodities, at managed money and producers. The index marks an extreme high from 80 and an extreme low up to 20. The verdict compares against the same readings shifted to random dates (1,000 times). Tuesday positions, published on Friday; use a daily or weekly chart.
One of our guides' tables on the same thing the indicator measures, with its sample and its date range.
Does a positioning extreme announce the turn? ES 13 weeks later
ES
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| Weekly report reading | Higher 13 weeks later | Weeks |
|---|---|---|
| Speculators at a long extreme (26 episodes) | 61.1% | 113 |
| Speculators at a short extreme (20 episodes) | 73.1% | 108 |
| No extreme | 78.8% | 619 |
| All weeks | 75.7% | 840 |
n = 840 · 2010-06-07 to 2026-10-06 · historical futures data
CFTC weekly Legacy report (futures only) for the E-mini S&P 500, prices from 7-Jun-2010 and reports to 6-Oct-2026. Reading = large speculators' (non-commercials') net position as a share of open interest, placed inside its own range of the last 156 reports (3 years): 80 or more is a long extreme, 20 or less a short extreme. 'Higher' = the close 13 weeks later is above the first close on or after the Monday following publication (the report comes out on Friday with Tuesday's data), on the continuous series adjusted on contract changes. Weeks overlap: an extreme reading lasts many weeks in a row, which is why the number of separate episodes is given; that is the real count of independent cases. 95% confidence interval for the long extreme: 51.8-69.5%. It is what happened, not a signal.
Yes. All of them are public and open source on TradingView, and you add them with a free account. TradingView's free plan limits how many indicators you can have on a chart at once.
Key Levels and Setup State fix each level when its period or window ends; only the table updates inside the bar. The Session Profile of the session in progress changes until the close, and a finished session's profile no longer changes.
The data of the chart you open them on. The historical frequencies are embedded in the indicator and say up to which date they were measured and over how many sessions.
Because a historical percentage describes how much and how often the market moved in the past, not where it will go today. That is why every figure comes with its sample and none of them suggests trades.