PERFILTRADE
← All indicators

US Macro Release Days with Measured First Hour

Macro Release Days: a free TradingView indicator

Which US releases are coming, and how much does the first hour usually move after each?

  • Free
  • Open source
  • Every percentage with its n
  • No signals
Add on TradingView →
ES chart on TradingView with Macro Release Days: a table with the coming US releases, their time, the first hour's size against a normal hour and how often the close kept the reaction.
ES, 5-minute bars, regular session of 16 Oct 2026. TradingView capture.
  • Marks the scheduled releases of the coming weeks (CPI, payrolls, PPI, retail sales, GDP, PCE, the Fed and ISM) on the chart at their New York time.
  • For the chart's market, how much the first hour moved against a normal hour and how often the close kept the first reaction, with its n.
  • It never shows which way the reaction went, and the calendar states the date it was built.

How it is computed

The statistics are measured over the market's last 3 years of 1-minute bars. When the interval holds 1x (size) or 50% (held reaction), it reads same as chance. Dates marked "est." are estimated and ISM sits on the first business day of the month; always check the official calendar.

How to add it

  1. Open it on TradingView and press "Use on chart" or "Add to favorites".
  2. Or copy the code, open TradingView's Pine editor, paste it and press "Add to chart".

The measurement behind it

One of our guides' tables on the same thing the indicator measures, with its sample and its date range.

Macro data days in ES: the first hour against the whole session

ES

Swipe to see the sample →

ReleaseFirst hour after the release vs a normal hourWhole regular session vs a normal dayWhole regular session, full historyReleases
CPI (inflation), 8:30 ET4.0 ×1.19 ×1.09 ×59
Employment report (NFP), 8:30 ET3.1 ×1.29 ×1.11 ×57
FOMC (Fed decision), 14:00 ET3.5 ×1.63 ×1.40 ×40
FOMC: the next session--1.18 ×1.23 ×40
FOMC: two sessions later--1.15 ×1.09 ×40

n = 156 · 2021-10-08 to 2026-09-16 · historical futures data

The first two columns and 'Releases' use the releases from 1-Oct-2021 to 30-Sep-2026, the same window as the table of the first hour on macro data days; the third uses the full history since June 2010 (192 CPI, 189 employment reports, 130 decisions). First hour = high minus low from the release minute to 59 minutes after it (8:30-9:29 ET for CPI and employment, before the 9:30 open; 14:00-14:59 ET for the FOMC), over the median of that same hour in the 20 previous sessions without any of the 7 releases (CPI, NFP, PPI, retail sales, GDP, PCE, FOMC). Whole session = regular-session range (9:30-16:00 ET) over the median regular-session range of those same 20 previous sessions; in the rows for the next session and two sessions later, the range is that session's and the normal day is still the one known before the FOMC. Each cell is the median across releases; on days without a release the same ratio has a median of 0.99. 95% confidence intervals of the whole session (resampling releases), 2021-2026 window: CPI 1.19 [1.02 to 1.35], employment 1.29 [1.12 to 1.53], FOMC 1.63 [1.42 to 1.94], next session 1.18 [1.04 to 1.38], two later 1.15 [0.99 to 1.39]; full history: CPI 1.09 [0.97 to 1.19], employment 1.11 [1.01 to 1.20], FOMC 1.40 [1.25 to 1.54], next session 1.23 [1.13 to 1.47], two later 1.09 [0.99 to 1.22]. In the last 3 years (since 1-Oct-2023) the whole session measured 1.16 on CPI, 1.44 on employment and 1.46 on FOMC. Reading: the jump is concentrated in the first hour; over the whole session a CPI day is only slightly wider than a normal one, while the FOMC day is clearly wider and the effect is still visible in the next session and, more weakly, in the second (its interval touches 1). It measures size, not direction. ES front contract, 1-minute bars.

Download the table (CSV) ↓

Read the full guide: What the S&P 500 Does on Macro Data Days: CPI, Jobs and the Fed →

Frequently asked questions

Are they free?

Yes. All of them are public and open source on TradingView, and you add them with a free account. TradingView's free plan limits how many indicators you can have on a chart at once.

Do they repaint?

Key Levels and Setup State fix each level when its period or window ends; only the table updates inside the bar. The Session Profile of the session in progress changes until the close, and a finished session's profile no longer changes.

What data do they use?

The data of the chart you open them on. The historical frequencies are embedded in the indicator and say up to which date they were measured and over how many sessions.

Why do they give no signals?

Because a historical percentage describes how much and how often the market moved in the past, not where it will go today. That is why every figure comes with its sample and none of them suggests trades.

All indicators