NQ Initial Balance Statistics
Updated September 20, 2026
What this NQ data sheet measures
The Initial Balance, or IB, is the range between the high and the low of the first sixty minutes of the regular session, 9:30 to 10:30 New York time. Why that hour matters belongs to the general guide on the concept.
This is something else: the statistical sheet for the E-mini Nasdaq-100. Two tables measured on NQ alone, with 4,929 breaks in the first and 4,182 sessions in the second, from 7 June 2010 to 15 September 2026.
They do not answer what the Initial Balance is. They answer what NQ did after breaking it, and how far that carries over to other contracts. Not far, as you will see.
Breaking the IB and closing beyond it, by weekday
The table measures one specific thing that is easy to confuse with another. It does not count how often price leaves the Initial Balance. It counts, out of every break recorded, how often the session ended up closing beyond the level it broke.
Each row is a weekday and rests on between 940 and 1,043 NQ breaks. The samples are of the same order of magnitude, so the rows can be compared with one another without any of them dragging the rest.
Monday leads on the upside: the close landed above the broken high in 58.9% of 940 NQ breaks. Friday follows at 58.0% of 942. Wednesday is the weakest row in the table, at 52.4% of 1,043.
NQ: rotura del Initial Balance y cierre mas alla del nivel
NQ
| Dia | Rompe el maximo | Rompe el minimo | Roturas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lunes | 58.9% | 46.9% | 940 |
| Martes | 55.5% | 45.3% | 1,001 |
| Miércoles | 52.4% | 49.7% | 1,043 |
| Jueves | 54.4% | 45.6% | 1,003 |
| Viernes | 58.0% | 51.8% | 942 |
n = 4,929 · 2010-06-07 to 2026-09-15 · exchange data
IB = rango de los primeros 60 minutos de la sesion regular (9:30-10:30 ET). El porcentaje es cuantas veces la sesion cerro por fuera del extremo roto, no cuantas veces hubo rotura.
The asymmetry between the upside and the downside
The contrast between the two columns is the main finding. On all five weekdays, a break of the high ends with the close above it more often than a break of the low ends with the close below it. In NQ there is no exception.
The distance is widest on Monday: 58.9% up against 46.9% down, over 940 NQ breaks. On Wednesday it nearly vanishes, 52.4% against 49.7% over 1,043. On the downside, only Friday clears 50%, at 51.8% over 942 breaks.
Tuesday closes below in 45.3% of its 1,001 NQ breaks, Thursday in 45.6% of 1,003. Before reading that as a property of the Nasdaq: the series covers sixteen years in which the index rose far more than it fell, and that drift seeps into any directional measurement.
What the day does depending on IB size
The second table splits 4,182 NQ sessions by the size of the Initial Balance measured as a percentage of price, then looks at what the day did next: break one side, break both, or stay inside the range.
From the 0.25-0.5% bucket onward the progression is orderly. Breaking both sides falls from 29.6% over 1,064 NQ sessions to 21.6% in the 0.5-0.75% bucket, over 1,220, and down to 16.5% between 1.5% and 2.0%, over 206.
The mirror reading holds: breaking a single side climbs from 67.2% to 77.3% in the 1.0-1.5% bucket, over 648 NQ sessions. Staying inside all session is rare, between 3.2% and 5.8%, except above 2.0%, where it reaches 12.6% over 87 sessions.
NQ: que hace el dia segun el tamaño del Initial Balance
NQ
| Tamaño del IB | Rompe un lado | Rompe los dos | Sin rotura | Sesiones |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-0,25% | 75.0% | 21.0% | 4.0% | 124 |
| 0,25-0,5% | 67.2% | 29.6% | 3.2% | 1,064 |
| 0,5-0,75% | 74.7% | 21.6% | 3.7% | 1,220 |
| 0,75-1,0% | 74.5% | 19.7% | 5.8% | 833 |
| 1,0-1,5% | 77.3% | 17.7% | 4.9% | 648 |
| 1,5-2,0% | 77.7% | 16.5% | 5.8% | 206 |
| >2,0% | 69.0% | 18.4% | 12.6% | 87 |
n = 4,182 · 2010-06-07 to 2026-09-15 · exchange data
Tamaño del IB como porcentaje del precio. Un IB estrecho rompe los dos lados con mas frecuencia (mas rotacion); uno ancho tiende a romper un solo lado.
The narrowest bucket breaks the pattern
One row does not fit. The narrowest IB, 0-0.25%, breaks both sides in 21.0% of sessions. If the relationship were clean that should be the highest value in the column, and it sits below the bucket above it.
The likely reason is the sample: 124 NQ sessions, against 1,064 in the 0.25-0.5% bucket and 1,220 in the 0.5-0.75% one. An Initial Balance that narrow is uncommon in this contract.
The above-2.0% bucket, with 87 NQ sessions, deserves the same caution. When both ends of a table behave oddly and are also the thinnest samples, the sensible move is to treat them as a hint rather than a firm result.
These numbers are NQ's and do not transfer
Lifting a percentage from one table and applying it to another contract is exactly the temptation this comparison argues against. The same measurement, same definition and same period, produces a different split on the E-mini S&P 500.
On Monday, a close above the broken high is 58.9% of 940 breaks in NQ and 54.9% of 1,000 in ES. With an IB of 0-0.25%, breaking both sides is 21.0% in NQ over 124 sessions and 34.1% in ES over 533.
Scale does not match either: average daily true range is 174.8 points in NQ and 43.7 in ES, over 4,218 sessions each. What carries from one contract to another is the method, never the number.
Limits of the measurement and sensible use
The Initial Balance is a clock convention, not a level the market watches. Measuring it over thirty or ninety minutes produces a different table that is just as defensible, and its figures stop being comparable with these.
Both tables run from 2010-06-07 to 2026-09-15 and blend very different volatility regimes: a sixteen-year average does not describe the particular month you are trading. No figure is conditional on context, and no percentage nets out spread, commissions or slippage.
The sensible use is descriptive: note the size of today's IB, place it in its bucket, and see which shape of session is more frequent there, without inferring direction. This content is informational material about reading historical data, not personalized investment advice; past results do not anticipate future ones, and trading futures involves risk of loss.
Frequently asked questions
- How often does NQ close beyond the Initial Balance it broke?
- It depends on the side and the day. On the upside, between 52.4% on Wednesday, over 1,043 breaks, and 58.9% on Monday, over 940. On the downside, between 45.3% on Tuesday, over 1,001, and 51.8% on Friday, over 942. In total, 4,929 NQ breaks.
- Why does the upside look better than the downside in NQ?
- It is the clearest asymmetry in the table: on Monday, 58.9% against 46.9% over 940 NQ breaks. The likeliest explanation is not the Initial Balance but sixteen years of series in which the index rose far more than it fell.
- Does a narrow Initial Balance in NQ point to a bigger day?
- The data does not say that: the columns only separate breaking one side, breaking both, or neither, and nothing measures the travel afterward. The 0-0.25% bucket also holds just 124 NQ sessions and breaks both sides in 21.0%, below the 29.6% of the next bucket.
- Can I use these NQ figures on ES or other futures?
- Not without measuring again. With the same definition and period, breaking both sides on a 0-0.25% IB is 21.0% in NQ over 124 sessions and 34.1% in ES over 533.
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