product
None of this is a repackaged black box. Every table and every percentage comes from the same historical data pipeline -- what changes is the question each tool is built to answer.
The sentence of the day · ES
Session of 11/2: ES usually moves about 74 points, more than a normal day (63). First session of the month (ISM manufacturing): the range is usually 1.14× the normal one.
Regular session, 70% band: 49 to 112 points. Out of sample, that band held the actual range 69.4% of the time (n = 2,791 sessions).
Next timed release: Jobless claims, Thu 5 at 08:30 ET.
data through Fri, Oct 30 · delayed: updated every night
What we measured that did not work
Seasonal windows that were “almost always positive”: positive in the following years
49.9 %·n = 1,489
Control: 49.7 % (any window of the same length)
Strategies that pass the robustness filter: profitable afterwards
38.3 %·n = 188
Control: 40.1 % (profitable without passing the filter)
POC of an earlier session: reached in the next session
23.1 %·n = 6,940
Control: 23.0 % (any price at the same distance)
The “80% rule”: reaches the opposite edge of value
61.4 %·n = 950
Control: 80 % (what its name promises)
Each row comes from a published table, with its scope and dates. Hypothetical results. A simulation on past data, not a real account. They do not guarantee future results.
see all the results →NQ Initial Balance: breaks by IB size
Jun 7, 2010 to Oct 9, 2026 · n = 4,200 sessions
| IB size | Sessions | Breaks one side | Breaks both | Neither |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–0.25 % | 124 | 75.0 % | 21.0 % | 4.0 % |
| 0.25–0.5 % | 1,069 | 67.3 % | 29.6 % | 3.2 % |
| 0.5–0.75 % | 1,228 | 74.6 % | 21.7 % | 3.7 % |
| 0.75–1.0 % | 836 | 74.5 % | 19.7 % | 5.7 % |
| 1.0–1.5 % | 650 | 77.2 % | 17.7 % | 5.1 % |
| 1.5–2.0 % | 206 | 77.7 % | 16.5 % | 5.8 % |
| >2.0 % | 87 | 69.0 % | 18.4 % | 12.6 % |
Size = (IB high − IB low) / IB low. Each row adds up to 100%.
Markets: price against the IB
plan Free
Where price sits relative to the Initial Balance (above, below or inside), across 25 instruments.
Base-rate reports
plan Trader
18 core reports and 24 more in the archive across 30 instruments, every figure with n, period and caveats.
Ranking
plan Trader
Ranking of patterns: first the ones that survive the false-discovery control.
In-session Market Profile
plan Trader
Initial Balance, Value Area, POC and profile shape during the session, against their history.
COT positioning
plan Trader
Weekly COT for 17 instruments with a 0-100 index and loaded positioning.
Correlations and reaction to data
plan Trader
VIX/BTC correlations and the reaction to macro releases.
Week: a summary of what is coming
plan Trader
What is coming this week in a paragraph written by rules, plus an optional AI report with its sources.
Cerebro AI
plan Free
Assistant that answers with platform data and cites the report, n and caveats. 5 questions a day on Free; 40 per hour on Trader and Pro.
Trading Journal
plan Pro
Import your trades from your platform's file or by webhook, and check whether your results differ from chance.
Funded accounts
plan Free
The distance to each of your firm's limits, with your own history.
Alerts
plan Free
Alerts by Telegram or webhook, each with its historical frequency and its n.
API and MCP
plan Trader
Read-only API and MCP: size, frequency and time, with n; never direction or prices.
Lab
plan Pro
Monte Carlo, chronological validation and funded-account simulation on setups.
Today, macro data, alerts and risk calculator
plan Free
Today, economic calendar, alerts and a risk calculator for 30 contracts.